Horse racing is unpredictable — that’s what makes it exciting. But for savvy bettors, unpredictability doesn’t have to mean risk. With hedging and arbitrage, you can protect your bankroll, lock in profits, or limit damage from an upset. At MyWinners.com, these tactics let you play the odds while staying one step ahead of the market.
What is hedging in horse racing?
What is hedging in horse racing?
Hedging is when you place a second bet to protect or guarantee part of your return.
Example
You’re alive in a Pick 4 heading into the final leg
One horse will win you $800, but another is a threat
You place a win bet on the rival to cover your risk
If your Pick 4 loses, your hedge softens the blow. If it hits, you still win big.
What is arbitrage betting?
What is arbitrage betting?
Arbitrage in horse racing is rarer, but possible in situations like:
Different tote pools (e.g. online vs. track vs. simulcast)
Overlays in exotic pools where combinations are mispriced
Rebate exploitation, where long-term profits come from volume
True arbitrage means risk-free profit, but most horseplayers use the term to describe favourable situations with minimal downside.
Example 1: Kentucky Derby Win Pool Arbitrage
At the track tote: Horse A is showing odds of 5/1 (implied probability ~16.7%).
On an online ADW (advance-deposit wagering) tote feed: Because of different bettor behaviour, Horse A is 8/1 (implied probability ~11.1%).
Since these are separate pools, payouts will differ. If you bet at the ADW when the tote locks, you get paid at 8/1 if your horse wins. If you simultaneously lay off at the track pool or cover other contenders with differentials, you can create a near-risk-free edge if the spread is big enough.
Example 2: Exotic Overlay
Exacta pool at Track A: Combination (Horse 3 over Horse 7) is paying $120.
Simulcast pool online: The same combination is paying $180.
If you’re playing both pools and stake correctly, you can lock in profit by betting into the higher-paying pool while covering the reverse or other logical combos in the lower-paying pool.
Example 3: Rebate Exploitation
Large-volume US bettors sometimes get 8–12% rebates on all handle from ADWs. Even if their raw ROI is –2%, the rebate pushes them into positive territory. In effect, that’s a structural “arbitrage,” because the profit comes from volume and incentives rather than line inefficiencies.
Common hedge scenarios
Common hedge scenarios
Live exotic tickets: Hedge final legs with win/place bets
Futures bets: Bet rivals late if your horse shortens dramatically
Tournament play: Use smaller bets to secure leaderboard position
Why use these strategies?
Why use these strategies?
Reduce variance and bankroll swings
Control emotional betting
Lock in profits on longshots or multi-race scores
Stay engaged without going “all or nothing”
💡 Did You Know? True risk-free arbitrage is extremely rare in US pari-mutuel racing, because pools close simultaneously and odds are final at post time.
What bettors usually mean by “arbitrage” is identifying overlays or cross-pool discrepancies where the downside is minimised and the expected value is positive.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is hedging always worth it?
Is hedging always worth it?
Not always. It depends on your risk tolerance. Some bettors prefer the sweat, others want guaranteed green.
Can I hedge bets at MyWinners?
Can I hedge bets at MyWinners?
Yes. You can place multiple bets on the same or different horses to protect positions, especially during live race days.
What’s the difference between hedging and chasing?
What’s the difference between hedging and chasing?
Hedging is planned risk management. Chasing is emotional overbetting after a loss. One keeps you safe; the other breaks your bankroll.
Can beginners use hedging strategies?
Can beginners use hedging strategies?
Yes — start simple. If you’ve got a live multi-race ticket, backing one or two logical rivals can reduce stress and protect value.
Do arbitrage opportunities really exist in US racing?
Do arbitrage opportunities really exist in US racing?
They’re rare — but possible. Look for mismatched odds, overlays in trifecta or super pools, or bonus incentives that give you an edge.