Backing the favorite is the most common betting strategy in horse racing. After all, the favorite is statistically the most likely to win… right? Not always. In fact, knowing when to bet against the favorite—or “fade” them—can unlock better value, higher payouts, and smarter wagering.
Understanding when to take this calculated risk is a hallmark of an intermediate-to-advanced horseplayer. So when should you go against the grain?
Why Betting Against the Favorite Can Be Smart
Why Betting Against the Favorite Can Be Smart
The average winning percentage of race favorites in the US hovers around 33%, meaning they lose two out of every three races. Yet they often attract the bulk of the betting pool, which shrinks your potential profit.
That’s where value comes in. If you believe another horse is nearly as likely to win—but offers 8/1 instead of 2/1—you’ve found a betting opportunity worth exploring.
Situations Where You Might Fade the Favorite
Situations Where You Might Fade the Favorite
1. Weak Class Drop or Step Up
If the favorite is moving into a tougher field or only just dropping from a poor performance, they may be overbet.
2. Suspect Jockey or Trainer Trends
Is the jockey on a cold streak? Does the trainer have poor stats with layoff horses or certain surfaces?
3. Distance or Surface Concerns
A favorite who has never run on turf or has never won at today’s distance might be vulnerable.
4. Overbet Public Horse
Favorites with big reputations or media buzz are often overbet by casual punters, inflating their price and lowering payout potential.
5. Strong Alternatives in the Field
If multiple contenders show solid speed figures, class, and current form, it’s a perfect spot to spread your bets wider.
How to Bet When You’re Fading the Favorite
How to Bet When You’re Fading the Favorite
Win bets on higher-value contenders
Exacta and Trifecta boxes that exclude the favorite
Spread wider in multi-race bets (e.g., Pick 4s) by using longshots in place of the favorite
Dutching strategies to cover multiple value runners
Fading a favorite doesn’t mean blindly betting against them. It means being selective, analytical, and always value-conscious.
💡 Did You Know? In 2013, Orb won the Kentucky Derby as the favorite. But from 2014 to 2019, only one favorite managed to win the Preakness, highlighting how unpredictable even elite races can be.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does it mean to 'fade the favorite' in horse racing?
What does it mean to 'fade the favorite' in horse racing?
To fade the favorite means to bet against the horse that has the lowest odds and is expected to win. Bettors do this when they believe the favorite is overvalued or vulnerable.
How often do favorites actually win in US horse racing?
How often do favorites actually win in US horse racing?
On average, favorites win about 33% of the time in US races. That means they lose the majority of the time, making value betting important.
When should I consider betting against the favorite?
When should I consider betting against the favorite?
You might fade a favorite when they face poor form, class mismatches, distance or surface concerns, or when a stronger value alternative exists.
Can betting against the favorite increase my payout?
Can betting against the favorite increase my payout?
Yes. Since the favorite usually takes a big portion of the betting pool, payouts for other contenders are often much higher when the favorite loses.
Is it better to avoid the favorite in exotic wagers?
Is it better to avoid the favorite in exotic wagers?
In some cases, yes. Leaving the favorite out of exotic bets like Exactas, Trifectas, or Pick 4s can lead to significantly higher returns—if your alternative selections hit.